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Drought denial's tougher to pull off than climate denial.Photo: Luke RobinsonWhere and how will climate change first affect large numbers of American voters? Answering that question may be crucial to the global efforts to protect the Earth's climate. The tsunami of stupidity and science denial that has washed over Washington, D.C., won't be held back by earnest calculations of long-run risks, or by the potential inundation of remote island
nations, or by the news that polar bears and other iconic species are endangered.

While climate change may seem remote, the water crisis in the Southwest is all too immediate. Recent years of drought have reached critical levels, threatening to curtail agriculture and even the normal patterns of urban life throughout the region. Even if today's climate remained
unchanged, water use in Arizona, California, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah would more than double over the next century, just from population and income growth.

In a recent study, Elizabeth Stanton and I show that the changing climate will make a bad situation worse, increasing the Southwest's water consumption by an additional one-third of today's level of use. There is simply no way to get that much water; the region's rivers and rainfall aren't going to grow. Ocean desalination is expensive, energy-intensive, and environmentally controversial. Groundwater, which makes up the water deficit today, is bound to run out at some point; it is being used far beyond its recharge rates in California and Arizona, and probably elsewhere as well. There are two different estimates of California's current groundwater reserves; the state would need three times the more optimistic estimate in order to make it through the next century.

Solving the water crisis will require reductions in water use. Nevada and Utah are the top two states in per capita residential water use today. Extensive conservation and efficiency measures will be needed, reshaping urban water use, improving irrigation methods, and cutting back on the region's lowest-value crops, which are worth less than the water used to grow them.

It gets much harder to solve the water crisis when it gets hotter: We found that climate change could add as much as $1 trillion to the costs of water scarcity for the five Southwestern states over the next century. As Americans start to experience mounting costs of climate change in this and other areas, spending money to reduce carbon emissions will look like a bargain
by comparison.

So here's a message from planet Earth to our newly elected congressional "leaders." You've made it clear that you're not planning to protect the climate because of what's happening to polar bears, or the islands that are sinking beneath the waves, or even because you care about the lives of your great-grandchildren. But you've got to take action anyway; controlling climate
change is crucial if you want people to have reliable water supplies in the Southwest. This isn't the only way that you'll feel the impacts of climate change in years to come -- but it could be the first big one.

I’m getting some worried e-mails from Hill staffers who think Senate Democrats might rubberstamp a policy House Republicans passed to undermine the Affordable Care Act. It’s the sort of policy decision that won’t get much attention but could have some very big, and very bad, effects, so let’s take a moment and go through it.

If you’ve been paying attention to the debate over the Affordable Care Act, you’ve probably heard about the 1099 provision. Essentially, small businesses manage to avoid paying taxes on a lot of small transactions. The 1099 provision would’ve forced them to report those transactions, raising about $20 billion over 10 years. But it would’ve require a lot of paperwork. So much paperwork, in fact, that Democrats agreed to repeal it.

When the Senate repealed the provision, they paid for it by canceling other spending that Congress had authorized, but that hadn’t yet been put to a particular purpose. House Republicans took a different approach. They’re trying to sharply increase the amount of subsidies that families will have to pay back if their income increases during the course of a year. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities has a longer explanation of how this would work, but here’s the short version:

Under their proposed policy, a family with income at 225 percent of the poverty line who needed subsidies for the first half of the year but canceled them mid-year when the husband got a better job could get a bill for more than $4,500 at the end of the year.

A more worrying example goes the other way: Imagine a family where the breadwinner makes much more than 400 percent of poverty, but loses his job late in the year. He tries to apply for subsidies so the family can keep getting health insurance but is told that he shouldn’t bother — because his total income that year will still be above 400 percent of poverty, he’ll get a bill at the end of the year forcing him to pay back the money.

The Affordable Care Act, unfortunately, already includes a “payback” policy along these lines — the House Republicans are just proposing to make it much, much worse. This will do two things: make people hate the Affordable Care Act for bait-and-switching them, and keep people from entering the exchanges because they’ve heard horror stories of huge bills. It’s clear why the GOP wouldn’t mind that outcome, but there’s no reason for Democrats to accept it. The Senate should stick with the 1099 repeal that the Senate has passed.

BenchCraft, LLC announced that it will debut its Concert Sequence, a fresh line of recliners with an integrated sound process, at Big Stage Marketplace on October 17-22, 2009. Concert Series recliners attribute two built-in stereo speakers as well as a subwoofer built specially to produce a complete collection of sound. It's tactile motors that could both vibrate along with the sound or be utilised independently as being a massage model, and separate controls that make it possible for for individual changes to be built to the volume, bass/treble, and therefore the tactile/massage attribute. The product, which will have a starting up price tag level of $699, will even consist of a mini audio jack so consumers can connect to their several audio sources (i.e. iPods, MP3 players, cell phones, and many others.). To that end, Sinning noted that Berkline will even be introducing in decide upon motion
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